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Do Mass Shootings Have An Impact On The Prices Of Homes?

Do Mass Shootings Have An Impact On The Prices Of Homes?

A growing trend

Mass shootings are, unfortunately, an increasingly common phenomenon in America. According to the Gun Violence Archive, a non-profit corporation, 267 instances have happened in 2022. For comparison, 269 occurred in all of 2014.

Our state of California is part of this nationwide trend. So far, in 2022, the state averaged one mass shooting every week. This might sound horrific, but California is actually below the national average! Partially, we have California’s relatively strict gun laws to thank for that.

Intensive media coverage

Mass shootings, especially involving schools, usually become significant media events. Communities hit by these events get negative exposure for weeks. Everything positive about those communities becomes overshadowed by one event. The community’s name becomes a synonym for tragedy.

Negative impact on home prices

Evidence shows that after a mass shooting, local real estate prices tend to go down. For example, a 2018 study reveals that the prices of homes in a school district hit by a mass shooting declined by 7.8%. That decrease lasted from three to five years.  

Another report is even more pessimistic. Although the possibility of death by a mass shooting is minimal, home prices in communities with an incident decrease by 15% to 20%. The explanation for this is that although the incidence of mass shootings is low relative to all gun crimes, the news’ intense media coverage and emotional content scare away potential homebuyers that were previously willing to invest in a community.

Not all communities are the same

Not all communities are affected by mass shootings. For example, magnet cities such as Las Vegas and Orlando have had the worst incidents, measured by casualties. However, these locations are not associated with mass shootings only since they have so many attractions. So, property prices were not significantly affected. 

Fortunately, the Bay Area has not experienced such tragedies. Sure, we have our fair share of homeless issues, but the Bay Area will forever be known as a fast-growing, innovative and high tech space. In fact, our very own city of Emeryville was named one of the fastest growing cities in the nation! It has the highest minimum wage in California and it is the homebase to giants such as Pixar, Peet’s and Clif Bar, just to name a few. Hence, the housing market has not been affected negatively.

Gun control pros and cons

There are many arguments in favor of more gun control, as are arguments against more restrictions. It is hard to sustain a personal opinion. For homeowners concerned about the value of their properties, a mass shooting’s economic impact needs consideration when supporting one position or the other. 

Local expertise

At The Cal Agents, we know how important safety is for buyers looking for a new home.  All of us have been long-time Bay Area residents and we all have our own personal experience and insights and various cities and neighborhoods in the area. If you want to learn about the current housing market or just want to chat about different options, let us know. We are always here to help 

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Lex Shan

Lex is a real estate broker, real estate developer, entrepreneur and technologist. He has started an architectural design firm, real estate development private equity fund and California's largest real estate 3D marketing company.

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